Insights into the future of Sino-US ties

By Shafei M. Hali

It is now a little over a month since President Trump took the oath for the US presidency and as the western and global media suggests it has been a month full of action and surprises. 

So far President Trump has penned down at least 20 executive actions, which also includes the provocative "Muslim-Ban" barring people from seven Muslim-majority countries, he has established 14 members of his cabinet, and signed five executive orders. 

With all this action there have also been reports of numerous scandals and issues that have surfaced regarding his statements. All this has set the world in a state of confusion, the most damage was caused especially through the order, which placed a ban on the entry of people from seven Muslim-majority countries, because much of Mr. Trump's campaign days were full of populist ideals and he had many times raised concerns over Muslims in American and in the world in general and banning Muslim refugees in the name of bolstering security. 

With the executive order termed by the media as the "Muslim-ban," analysts and the media alike are predicting that all the other proposals which Mr. Trump had been talking about during his campaign days, which were all initially regarded as campaign rhetoric might also come true. 

After the "Muslim-ban", Trumps "wall" at the Mexican border making other countries pay for American security provision services seem like they might also come true. 

Though Mr. Trump's presidency during its first month has been tumultuous, and the continuation of the myriad of tweets has provided tremendous ammunition to the media for painting a picture for darker and unpredictable times ahead, but the reality is that even Mr. Obama after taking office issued about the same number of executive actions at this point in time, during his first presidency. 

The difference between Obama and Trump is that, Mr. Obama's actions seemed subtle compared to President Trump owing greatly to the difference in personalities and relations with the media. 

In terms of foreign policy; President Trump has proven to be a little different as compared to presidential candidate Trump, accept for the "Muslim-ban." 

Mr. Trump during his campaign days raised a lot of points against China, which the western media was quick to highlight. As President Elect he even suggested pondering over rethinking the "One-China Policy" which the U.S has upheld and maintained for over 40 years, and it was widely debated that President Trump might not honor this policy. 

It was also suggested by a few media outlets that Mr. Trump is the type of person who gets wooed by strongman leadership and he might be won over by China and all the campaign rhetoric regarding China will wash away and Sino-US relations will not be dented. 

So far during the first month into the Trump Presidency this predication has come true, as after a telephonic conversation on Feb. 9, 2017, between President Xi Jinping and President Trump, it was revealed that President Trump "fully understands the one-China policy and would adhere to it." This is a major sign so far by the Trump Presidency that, Sino-US relations would carry on the same way and that there is hope for the avoidance of a frictional path. 

It is true that in today's world, stable Sino-US relations are in the best interest of not merely both the countries but for everyone; as the two countries house the largest economies of the world today. With the global economy still recovering from shocks and aftershocks of the global financial crisis, steady Sino-US relations are judicious for of everyone. 

Since both economies are greatly intertwined and any harm or restrictions if set in to motion can prove to be detrimental for both the countries. The US is China's biggest importer in terms of sales of Chinese goods by dollar value during 2015. The US imports from China in 2015 amounted to 410.8 billion US dollars, which is roughly 18% of the total exports of China, thus it can easily be said that the US is the biggest market for Chinese goods. 

On the other side, China is the third largest importer of US goods and services, the trade between the two countries in 2015 alone helped create 2.6 million jobs in the United States and US dollars 216 billion of GDP, also greater trade with China lowers the inflation rate in the US as China provides cheaper goods to the US economy which helps every household in the US to save money and it has been estimated that in 2015 trade with China helped every household in the US save 850 dollars each. 

Though the US economy is recovering from the 2008 financial crisis, it still has a lot of ground to cover before it can be termed as out of the woods. These trade facts are known by the advisers of President Trump and this is the reason why President Trump's claims regarding China during his campaign days have given way to maintaining normal ties. 

A peaceful and prosperous world needs strong and balanced Sino-US ties as both countries contribute much towards the global economy. Within the last 15 years China has contributed tremendously towards the global economic growth, more so than the joint EU and the US contributions. China's contribution towards the global GDP growth in 2015 accounted to around a third of the total global GDP growth. 

Making China an extremely significant trade partner for the US, this is the reason why even in the past many US presidents raised chants about getting "tough on China" during their campaign days but took a U-turn from their campaign rhetoric and maintained strong ties with China after assuming office. 

The Author:

Shafei Moiz Hali has a master's degree from George Mason University, Virginia, USA in the field of International Commerce and Public Policy. Mr. Hali has been working as an Assistant Professor at the National Defence University (NDU), Islamabad, Pakistan with the department of Government and Public Policy Since 2009. Currently he is pursuing his PhD from the College of Public Administration at the Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST), China.