The Xi-Trump summit is only the beginning of their direct meetings

By George N. Tzogopoulos

The meeting between the presidents of China and the US is perhaps the most important one at the international level as they represent the two most powerful countries in the world. The timing of the first summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump further outlines the need of finding a modus vivendi. A few hours after Xi’s landing in the US Trump ordered from his Mar-a-Lago resort military airstrikes against Syria responding to the release of information about a chemical attack in the northern part of the country. Subsequently, 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired against Al Shayrat airfield in Syria.

Xi visited Florida in a period during which the US foreign policy approach under the country’s new president has not yet been completely shaped. Trump had been ambiguous in the pre-election period. He was advocating for a modern isolationism but also promising to employ a muscular policy against terrorists of the Islamic State. After his inauguration, he showed some signs of a tough stance towards Asia and a preference for bilateral trade deals, also stepping back from his previous anti-NATO statements. The recent military strikes against the Syrian military base show that Trump is unpredictable in foreign affairs as he can easily change his mind and catch elite and public opinion by surprise.

China closely monitors the situation in Syria. It always opposes the usage of chemical weapons and expects from all sides to prevent the deterioration of the situation. The country – along with Russia – voted against an international action on Syria and wants an investigation by an independent body to take place. What is particularly worrying – apart from the continuous destabilization of Syria and the human tragedy – is that the US and Russia have entered a new period of crisis following the theoretical honeymoon after Trump’s victory in the US election. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it will suspend the memorandum with US that prevents incidents and ensured flight safety in Syria. And, although the US counts on the support of many of its allies, its future diplomatic moves remain unknown. Realistically, hopes for a breakthrough in Geneva and Astana are rather limited.

Under these difficult circumstances, Xi and Trump attempt to send some positive signals to the world about the evolution of the Sino-American partnership. The North Korea imbroglio is the highest US priority at this juncture. Washington wants from Beijing to act more towards the direction of pushing Pyongyang to cooperate with the international community. This American position outlines Beijing’s new enhanced international role. The good news for China is that it can bargain with the US on several issues investing on its leverage over the North Korean regime.

From another perspective, however, China has already applied relevant decisions of the UN Security Council and cannot alone control the situation. It therefore expects less tensions and military threats from all sides involved and hopes for a potential denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula within the framework of the ‘six party talks’. Nonetheless, the recent beginning of the installment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea has caused high concern in Beijing. Moreover, Trump’s decision to bombard Syria might constitute a precedent for a similar intention to act unilaterally against North Korea, although conditions are different.

With reference to South China Sea, it is obvious that the positions of China and the US are contradictory. While the former is determined to protect its national interest, the latter could be prepared to increase its military presence. Washington’s decision to deploy the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson a few weeks ago was indicative. Xi and Trump did not reach an agreement of the matter in Florida. But they both acknowledge the importance of peace and stability in the region as well as of the risk of a direct confrontation.

As far as economics are concerned, Trump has realized the consequences of a potential ‘trade war’ with China because the other side would retaliate damaging the American economy. So, the new US President is milder in comparison to some of his previous statements. This tendency is positive for a harmonious bilateral collaboration. In that regard, The New York Times is right in asserting that Trump ‘talks tough on China-US trade’ but delays real action’. The newspaper explains that Washington has not yet decided whether to impose a general border-adjusted tax or to put emphasis on trade disputes.

On the whole, the Xi-Trump summit, which followed the visit of State Councilor Yang Jiechi to the US and of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to China, sketched out differences in the policies of the two sides but also outlined their common will to work together on a range of issues threatening international security and stability. While Xi expressed his readiness to lead together with Trump ‘people who have good wishes and passion to upgrade China-US relations’, the US President said he had already forged a ‘friendship’ with his Chinese counterpart.

A good personal relationship between Xi and Trump will be critical for a better understanding between Beijing and Washington indeed. The Florida summit is only the beginning of their direct meetings as Xi has already invited Trump to visit China.

Dr George N. Tzogopoulos is a lecturer at the European University in Nice, France and the Democritus University in Thrace, Greece. He is also a research fellow at the Centre International de Formation Européenne (CIFE), the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) where he coordinates its Asian Studies Programme and a research associate at the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR). George is also the founder of chinaandgreece.com an institutional partner of CRI Greek.