Macron's victory in France and future of Sino-France relations

By Shafei M. Hali

Emmanuel Macron won France's presidential race on Sunday. The 39 year old has never held elected office. He will also be the youngest president of France's Fifth Republic which was introduced on October 5, 1958. The young investment banker rode on a tide of young and educated supporters who felt disenfranchised by the surge of populism following the Brexit vote and Donald Trump's victory in the US election.

Mr. Macron, won France's presidential election on Sunday, after defeating the far right nationalist Marine Le Pen, with the polls showing 66.1% votes going to Mr. Macron and 33.9% going in favor of Marine Le Pen. The results clearly highlighted that there exists a majority in France which firmly rejects the far-right message and backs Macron's stance for centrist change.

France is a member of the Group of 7 leading industrialized nations. France is ranked as the world's ninth largest and the EU's second largest economy. France is also a permanent member of the UN Security Council, making it a very important country. This is the reason why, the elections in France were carefully watched around the world. Especially after the Brexit vote and Donald Trump's election win in the US. It was observed that the world is going through a populist movement. As mentioned above at the end it was down to Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen. Le Pen's victory would have meant another win for the populist movement and would have been damaging for the future of EU. However, Macron's victory offers significant respite to the European Union. His stance on relaxing labor rules, making France more competitive and viable globally and bolstering relations with the European Union is an inclusive stance which provides encouragement to the global financial markets and is a major win for free trade. 

It is clear from Mr. Macron's win that France's future as part of the EU is secure for now. Nevertheless, the question being raised by pundits around the globe is; what does it mean for other major players in the world? For the case of the US, this election win means; the continuation of the status quo in US-French relations from a defense and economic perspective. As this is a win for the centrists thus sanity will prevail and there will not be any surprises. For the case of China which is the second largest economy in the world and after this wave of populism, it is China which is emerging as the bastion of free trade and inclusivity with its Belt and Road initiative. Thus, this is also a big question, what does Mr. Macron's election win means for the future of Sino-French relations?

It was made pretty clear during the campaign that Mr. Macron holds China in high esteem. He holds a profound interest in Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping as leaders. In an interview conducted by Le Parisien, Macron said; "I am a Maoist." And elaborated that, for Mao, "a good program is what works." Macron during his campaign used anecdotes and references from Chinese history several times. At one instance Macron was asked about the Left-Right divide in France and Macron began his answer with Deng Xiaoping's maxim "it doesn't matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice." He even likened the intense campaign as the "long march" in China. These are a few examples and they clearly highlight Macron's interest in Chinese history and approval of China's stance. Macron's favorable stance towards China becomes even more evident from his book "Révolution". In this book he praises China's path towards economic development extensively and also wrote that Chinese leaders have never forgotten the fact that France was the first Western power to establish diplomatic ties with China.

President Xi Jinping responded in kind towards Macron's interest in China and the Chinese President was amongst the first few global leaders who called President elect Macron upon his election victory and as highlighted by Macron in his book, President Xi proved to Macron that the Chinese Leadership has not forgotten, when he said; "France was the first major Western country to have established diplomatic ties with the People's Republic of China. China-France relations, which have significant strategic importance and international influence, have been developing steadily, healthily and consistently in recent years," he said. "Both as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and big countries with significant international influence, China and France bear special important responsibilities to world peace and development," Xi said.

"Maintaining the steady and healthy development of the China-France relationship benefits not only the two countries and peoples, but also world peace, stability and development, he noted.

China is willing to work with the French side to push the close and sustaining China-France comprehensive strategic partnership to a higher level."

With President Xi's courteous congratulatory message and Macron's extremely favorable stance towards China; Sino-French relations are expected to hit new highs especially in the presence of President Xi's Belt and Road initiative and Macron's Ideals catering for "economic liberalism." It seems China and France are likely to be headed on a patch which will make the two countries important allies in supporting globalization, free-trade and the fight against climate change. 

The Author:

Shafei Moiz Hali has a master's degree from George Mason University, Virginia, USA in the field of International Commerce and Public Policy. Mr. Hali has been working as an Assistant Professor at the National Defence University (NDU), Islamabad, Pakistan with the department of Government and Public Policy Since 2009. Currently he is pursuing his PhD from the College of Public Administration at the Huazhong University of Science and Technology (HUST), China.