Premier Li’s visit Invigorates ASEAN states to move towards RCEP
By Shafei Moiz Hali
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang landed in Manila on Sunday Nov 12th 2017; this is the first visit abroad by Premier Li after CPC’s 19th National Congress meeting. After the 19th National Congress meeting it has been observed that a lot of confidence has been accorded to President Xi and the leadership of CPC; thus raising the level of commitment of the leadership of CPC to pursue its goals for realizing the Chinese dream for its people and for making efforts to promote balanced global trade. Premier Li’s visit to Manila is an important visit as he has a significant opportunity to extend the CPC’s vision of friendly cooperation “diplomacy with Chinese characteristics in the new era.” The Premier has attended very important meetings such as; the 20th China-ASEAN (10+1) leaders' meeting, the 20th ASEAN-China, Japan and Republic of Korea (10+3) leaders' meeting and the 12th East Asia Summit, as well as the leaders' meeting on Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (5th L) and leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries pose for group photos before the 20th China-ASEAN (10+1) leaders' meeting in Manila, the Philippines, Nov. 13, 2017.[Photo: Xinhua]
The Premier’s visit to Manila has gained traction due to a number of reasons. First and foremost is the fact that, various countries around the world are now looking towards China as the true supporter of open and balanced trade. Time and again this notion is being reinforced because of the successes and advancements in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, lethargic world economic growth, and President Trump’s populist stance, which he once again exhibited during his speech at the recently concluded APEC summit, President Trump said, US would no longer join "large agreements that tie our hands, surrender our sovereignty and make meaningful enforcement practically impossible''.
With this spread of populism the importance of this year’s ASEAN summit and RCEP have gained incredible importance. This is the reason along with the fact that its ASEAN’s 50th anniversary, the tag line for the summit reads: “Partnering for Change, Engaging the World", as ASEAN’s aim is to join with its partners and pushing for further regional economic integration. This is also why RCEP is on top of the agenda points of this year’s ASEAN summit.
Premier Li has also attended the RCEP talks, which is the first leaders' meeting since its launch in 2012. RCEP is a free trade pact involving the 10 ASEAN members and six other countries -- China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. It has become the way forward after TPP failed. RCEP is important for global trade because, RCEP caters for a population of 3.4 billion people, with a total gross domestic product of $49.5 trillion and about 40 percent of the world’s trade. Recent ministerial meetings held for negotiating the conclusion for the RCEP have shown great promise, which is why during the Nov 2017 ASEAN summit there is significant convergence among ASEAN members, plus a few dialogue partners which means; the 16 nations involved would agree on market access, a schedule and rules that can be signed-off. This is a major achievement in making RCEP a reality.
ASEAN and other countries of the East Asia region comprises of one of the three main columns of the larger global economy. Though, the World Trade Organization (WTO) is still one of the most practical charters for making the international trade playing field level, but more integration is needed to achieve freer trade, which is why FTAs are welcome. Though multilateral agreements like the TPP cannot catch up with the pace of changing world economy, it seems a multipolar international system of consolidated regional arrangements like the RCEP may provide countries more opportunity for development, not only for small economies, but also for the big actors. RCEP once achieved, will be an extension of an assimilated ASEAN community, and it offers a stage for the region to act as a group through which the member countries can team up to play a pivotal role in the global economy. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte among other ASEAN leaders acknowledge the importance of RCEP, that is why after assuming the revolving presidency of the ASEAN he has been pushing all the member states to successfully bring the negotiations for the RCEP to a conclusion. On this topic during the 49th ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting (AEM) in September 2017 he stated, “As we continue to steer ASEAN’s direction towards our shared goal of integrating the wider region into the economic global activity, we call on the parties in the ongoing RCEP negotiations to remain committed in delivering the agreement towards substantial conclusion.”
Premier Li at the 20th ASEAN-China summit stated in his opening remarks that, “We are also committed to working with ASEAN to build a community of shared future featuring common ideas, common prosperity and a common responsibility.” He also emphasized the importance of RCEP and said, “Advances should be made in RCEP negotiations, implementation of key international industrial capacity cooperation projects, financial cooperation between China and ASEAN.”
The important thing to note regarding the ASEAN states and the RCEP is that, it does not really matter whether RCEP is a “20th-century type” of regional trade agreement or not, what matters is that, it has to be “effective” and RCEP is going to be “effective” owing to its promise. TPP was neither a 20th century type agreement nor was it effective, which is why it is meeting its demise. As a professor of foreign policy and international trade, I believe that, since all the ASEAN members believe that RCEP is a practical way forward, then it needs to be concluded first and then incremental changes can be brought in future sessions to smooth out the creases. It will most certainly be a substantial achievement for free trade and globalization to conclude a regional arrangement among 16 countries, especially when these states encompass more than 50% of the world’s population, over 25% of GDP, and roughly account for 40% of global trade.
(Dr. Shafei Moiz Hali studied at George Mason University, Virginia, USA and specialized in the field of International Commerce and Policy. He did his PhD from Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China specializing in Chinese foreign policy focusing on the Belt and Road Initiative and energy issues. Currently Dr. Hali is working as an Assistant Professor with the Faculty of Contemporary Studies, National Defence University (NDU) Islamabad, Pakistan.)