Yearender: China-India relations passing a 'major test'

Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Astana, Kazakhstan, June 9, 2017. [Photo: Xinhua]

China-India relations during 2017 will be remembered for passing through one of the most complex phases in their recent history. However, since "all is well, that ends well", it will also be remembered for the maturity and finesse of their soldiers and officials reflecting, as foreign minister Wang Yi said, how their strategic interests outweigh their differences or 'partial friction' as he coined it. Above all, 2017 saw President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi persisting with their warm handshakes even in the midst of Doklam crisis. Their three bilateral meetings -- during SCO summit in June at Astana; G20 summit in July in Hamburg; and, BRICS summit in September in Xiamen --  evolved 'Astana Consensus', implying commitment "not to allow their difference to become disputes." This new catch-phrase now guides all China-India interactions, making their iconic 2014 photograph on-the-swing by-the-riverfront in Ahmedabad a relic symbolising the first phase of their Xi-Modi bonhomie.

The year 2017 had begun with the perennial China-India trade deficit rising from $44.87 billion for 2015 to $ 46.56 billion for 2016. Their overall trade actually declined by 2.1 per cent from $ 70.59 billion for 2015 to $70.8 billion for 2016. India's exports to China declined substantially from $ 16.4 billion for 2014 to $ 12.28 billion for 2015 and $ 11.76 billion for 2016.  In spite of all the talk of expanding demand in India's telecom and power sectors, Chinese exports to India rose only by marginal 0.2 per cent from $58.25 billion for 2015 to $58.33 billion for 2016.  This was explained to be both the cause as also the consequence of their political irritations. India had serious concerns about China continuing to ask for more time for determining whether Azhar Masood could be listed as terrorist in UN sanctions list as also on evolving a general criterion on India's membership to the Nuclear Suppliers Group. China was upset about a Tibetan separatist’s travels to disputed border regions leading to last minute cancellation of foreign minister Wang Yi's visit to India to attend the Russia-India-China trilateral in April. China though had denied this link between two events.

It was the month of May that saw the onset of escalation with India deciding to absent itself from president Xi's ambitious Belt and Road Forum (BRF) for international cooperation. This was attended by representatives from over 70 countries including heads of state/government from nearly 30 nations. The fact that the final document of BRF declared China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as the 'flagship' project of BRI was to further complicate matters making a difficult backdrop for their military standoff in the Doklam tri-junction of China-India-Bhutan border. It began from middle of June and continued till very end of August. This also saw minor incidents near the Pangong Lake in western sector and witnessed unprecedented harsh media commentaries. Minus this backdrop, Doklam standoff could have been easier to resolve just like earlier episodes at Depsang plateau in April 2013 and at Chumar-Demchok area in September 2014 when relations were cordial. Indeed, these irritants made Chinese commentators see India's initiatives like India-Japan Growth Corridor as competitive and India joining the quadrilateral of US-Japan-Australia-India as containment of China.

There were however several friendly joint ventures as well. Those generally got ignored in midst of tensions igniting skepticism. India became full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in June and made several leaps forward in its partnerships with China in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank or BRICS' New Development Bank where India has become a major recipient of financial assistance. In their bilateral interactions as well, BCIM-Economic Corridor saw Kolkata hosting this April the third consultation meeting of their Joint Study Group. The fact that China hosted BRICS summit in September provided dozens of opportunities for China-India interactions at all levels. These became catalysts in ensuring restraint and achieving a successful disengagement of their 72-day long Doklam standoff.

The good news is that these last six weeks of the year have brought back not just hope but also some enthusiasm promising return to Confidence Building Measures during 2o!8. Starting from 10th November when a delegation of NITI Aayog of India was hosted by China Development Centre, Wang Yi visited India on December 11 to attend Russia-India-China trilateral followed by Yang Jiechi visiting India during December 22 to attend the 20th round of Special Representatives border talks that had also lapsed longest ever, for 20 months. To cite Wang Yi again, Doklam standoff no doubt put "severe pressure" on China India relations yet 2018 indicates "prospects of the dragon and the elephant dancing together with 1+1+11 outlook." Already, this week's vote on Jerusalem at the United National General Assembly saw U.S.-led NATO falling apart while the unanimity of SCO and BRICS and RIC members reinforced China-India working together.

Now 2o18 begins with hundreds of cinemas across China screening Amir Khan starers Bollywood film Secret Superstar from 19th January. Last summer his family wresting drama, Dangal had collected over RMB 1.3 billion, the biggest ever for a non-Hollywood foreign film in China. The fact that president Xi had watched Dangal and he told this to Modi surely contributed to its greater success. It is intrusive on how their personal attention can make all the difference in addressing China-India irritations.

(Swaran Singh is professor, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi and visiting professor at Research Institute for Indian Ocean Economies in Kunming, China)