North Korean peace plan from Russian and Chinese perspective

The first days of the year 2018 began with the debate on whose nuclear button is comparatively larger between Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump. The North Korean crisis was one of the main agenda of the world politics in 2017. In this year a total of 19 missile tests were implemented by North Korea. As a result, South Korea and the United States together carried out military exercises. Washington and Pyongyang made unexpectedly tough diplomatic statements against each other. In addition to these developments, there is a new sanction resolution No. 2375 adopted by the United Nations Security Council against North Korea on 11 September 2017 and its support by China and Russia, the permanent members of the Security Council, show how serious the crisis in terms of International Political Concern. The support of the decision of the United Nations Security Council by China and Russia even if leaves the impression that the two countries are in a similar position on the Western North Korean Crises, it is necessary to interpret the issue differently. 

People watch news about high-level inter-Korean talks in Seoul, South Korea, Jan. 9, 2018. [Photo: Xinhua]

The information relating to the development of a joint plan between Beijing and Moscow for resolving the Korean crisis in October 2017 has got huge press coverage. But full explanation of this plan was on the opening of the annual Valdai Club Asian Regional Conference held in Seoul on October 2017. Igor Morgulov, the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, talked about a peaceful resolution plan between Russia and China. The first phase of this peace resolution plan is called 'freeze for freeze'. According to this plan, in the first phase North Korea will freeze missile and nuclear tests in return for the Pentagon and South Korea suspending their annual joint military exercises. 

In the second phase, direct diplomatic negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington, and between Seoul and Pyongyang will be initiated. In the case of these two phases are realized, and after the parties give written commitments to one another, Russia and China will as a final stage require the resumption of the six-party talks format (US, China, Japan, South Korea, Russia + North Korea) to ensure global and regional security. This plan is fully supported by Russia and China and is seen as a road-map. 

In spite of the rigid statements between Washington and Pyongyang there was a very important development between the two countries in 2018. There was an announcement in January 4 that the planned military exercises between the US and South Korea has been stopped. For the first time in two years, diplomats of South and North Korea have come to the direct contact. And this meant the application of the plan to resolve the North Korean crisis diplomatically that China and Russia put in place. From the United States, North Korea has been given the message of providing loan to solve the crisis. Acceptance of this diplomatic roadmap of Russia and China has been an important development in context of establishing peace and stability in the region.

On the other hand, it should be emphasized that the beginning of gradual diplomatic negotiations does not mean to the parties that North Korea is a nuclear power. China, in the similar way, expressed with the diplomatic language that it does not support the North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons. Vladimir Putin emphasized in the Eastern Economic Forum that he has a negative view on the status of North Korea as a country of having nuclear weapons On September 5, 2017. But he is also confident that the North Korean crisis can be avoided by negotiations on the discussion table, not on statements made in a threatening language.

Russia and China, will act jointly and try to persuade the USA and the North Korea to comply with their own solution plans due to their concern regarding Pentagon's growing military presence in the Pacific. Resolving the problem of Korean peninsula, playing Russia and China’s leading role in this issue, and most importantly, the beginning of six-party talks will be important. Along with the beginning of the six-party talks, it will be important for the EU and BRICS countries to actively support the peace route solution plans to keep this problem in mind in the world public opinion. 

(Orhan Gafarli is a PhD candidate in International Relations at Ankara University, who specializes in Russian Foreign Policy. He is also a Visiting Fellow in the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Center at Harvard University (2017–2018) and currently works with the Ankara Policy Center in Turkey.)