Trump's Taiwan move a recipe for disaster

The leadership of both China and the US has worked extremely hard to not only maintain but flourish ties between the two countries and the cornerstone of the relationship is the recognition and adherence of the One-China Policy. After decades of friendly ties between the US and People's Republic of China, President Donald Trump is playing the part of Brutus and staining Sino-US relations by signing the Taiwan Travel Act. 

US President Donald Trump speaks during a roundtable talks in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, in Washington, Tuesday, March 20, 2018.[Photo: AP/Manuel Balce Ceneta]

The relationship between the US and China was founded upon cooperation, trade, and most importantly the agreement of the One-China Policy. The three communiqués marked the advent of friendly ties between the two countries. The first joint communiqué also known as the Shanghai communiqué was issued on February 28th, 1972. President Richard Nixon of the United States of America visited the People's Republic of China and the Shanghai Communiqué was issued. Within the communiqué both sides agreed to respect each other's national sovereignty and territorial integrity and the official text of the communiqué regarding the One-China Policy states: the "United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China."  

The second joint communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic relations was issued on January 1st 1979. Within this communiqué both countries formally recognized one another, and this communiqué paved the way for normal ties. The United States formally recognized the government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China and this meant formal recognition of the One-China Policy with termination of formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. 

The third joint communiqué was issued on August 17th, 1982 and this communiqué is also known as the August 17th Communiqué. This joint communiqué reaffirmed commitments made within the previous two communiqués, bolstering the commitment to honor the One-China Policy.

It has been more than a year since Trump assumed the American presidency and it has so far been a rollercoaster ride full of stormy rhetoric, floundering on immigration and his itchy thumbs on Twitter. This is what his critics say about him in general but on the matters pertaining to Sino-US relations the story hasn't been any different. During his campaign days he frequently lashed out at China to score brownie points, which the Chinese Foreign Ministry discredited as harmless campaign rants and not official policy, but after becoming President Elect he welcomed the Taiwan leader's congratulatory phone call which rang alarm bells and Trump immediately took corrective measures. During his official state visit to China he was deeply moved by Chinese hospitality and he stated, "The United States government upholds and sticks to the One-China Policy." However, as time passed after the visit, he is again treading towards the path of straining Sino-US ties by proposing and imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, and now the signing of the Taiwan Travel Act that encourages the United States to send officials "of all levels" to Taiwan to meet their "counterparts" on the island, and vice versa. This is a violation of the One-China Policy and the three joint communiqués.

Some observers believe that the signing of the "Taiwan Travel Act" is "nonbinding" in nature and might not have a lasting direct impact, but these observers fail to see the indirect repercussions of the act. It could trigger the emboldening of the leadership in Taiwan towards declaration of full independence which would likely translate into a tragedy; China's Anti-Secession Law which was passed in 2005 necessitates the use of "non-peaceful means" if developments towards Taiwan's secession from China should transpire.

This is the reason why the Foreign Ministry of China is not taking the matter lightly and this is why strong statements are echoing from the offices of the Foreign Ministry of China, like; "The relevant clauses of the 'Taiwan Travel Act' severely violate the One-China principle, the political foundation of the China-US relationship, and the three joint communiqués between China and the United States. We urge the US side to adhere to the One-China Policy and stop pursuing any official ties with Taiwan or improving its current relations with Taiwan in any substantive way." 

It has to be noted that Sino-US relations were built upon cooperation and US adherence to the One China Policy and under President Trump both pillars of the relationship seem to be receiving blows, as the hard work of previous leaders of the US and China is unraveling. The US administration has always been practical in the past while dealing with China, as the benefits of keeping good relations with China have always outweighed that of supporting Taiwan, but Mr. Trump and his administration don't seem to understand the precarious situation their actions can create. He seems to be taking lessons from Shakespeare's plays which often portray intense and complicated friendships. Rather, he needs to pay heed to words of wisdom from Confucius which the previous US administrations seemed to have followed more closely; "Between friends, frequent reproofs make the friendship distant."

(Dr. Shafei Moiz Hali studied at George Mason University, Virginia, USA and specialized in the field of International Commerce and Policy. He did his PhD from Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China specializing in Chinese foreign policy focusing on the Belt and Road Initiative and energy issues. Currently Dr. Hali is working as an Assistant Professor with the Faculty of Contemporary Studies, National Defence University (NDU) Islamabad, Pakistan.)