Taiwan Travel Act provocative and pointless

By Brady Fox

The Taiwan Travel Act (TTA), which states that the US should allow high-level diplomatic exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, was signed by President Trump last week. It received little fanfare in North America, but the legislation raised eyebrows among policymakers familiar with cross-strait relations. Some have argued it contradicts the One China principle, others that it is part of a broader strategic encirclement of China, and some that it is simply recognition of the current status quo. But despite deeply frustrating Beijing, the United States’ endgame with this legislation is somewhat unclear. It is a toothless document, and in isolation it may be little more than costly lip-service to Taipei. 

The United States Capitol east side in Washington D.C. on Monday, February 26, 2018.[Photo: dfic]

First, let us examine the motivations of US players.

This is not the initiative of the Trump administration. The bill was passed unanimously in congress, only possible when something appears low-stakes to legislators. And indeed, according to media accounts, most lawmakers were absent for the voice-vote in congress. But once on Trump’s desk, it would be abnormal for him to veto such unanimous-passed legislation unless he held extreme reservations.

As such, this is likely unconnected with Trump’s past musings about using the One China principle as a bargaining chip with China. His 2016/17 statements, which were widely unpopular in both Chinese mainland and Taiwan, appeared to be the result of a rather unsophisticated understanding of the One China principle. Trump has not raised the issue again since his inauguration. The change can likely be attributed to guidance from his advisors alongside a positive relationship with President Xi Jinping, who Trump appears to respect and deeply admire. 

Instead, this is part of a broader, populist-driven shift in attitudes toward Taiwan from US elected representatives. It appears more of a “feel-good” legislation that results from familiarity with the status quo, a strong economic relationship with Taiwan, and friendly ties with the current administration. Tsai Ing-Wen is popular with some US legislators, most notoriously meeting US Senator Ted Cruz on January 7th 2017. Furthermore, numerous polls have suggested that US voters do not see the One China principle as important for China-US relations, despite policymakers almost universally recognizing its importance. Given the populist slant of the current congress, it is unsurprising that they have disregarded diplomatic convention with China in favor of giving Taiwan a friendly nod.

But what does this change?

The legislation will likely change little in terms of de facto communication between Taiwan and the United States. Non-official visits between US and Taiwan officials are already commonplace. In 2012, for example, Taiwan’s senior defence official, Dr. Andrew Yang, reported “during this year I’ve made at least 19 trips to Washington and have conducted very high-level discussions with my counterparts.” Furthermore, as the legislation simply provides recommendations, it is yet to be seen if the Trump administration will implement any of the proposed changes.

That said, Trump’s recent nomination of Mike Pompeo as director of the Central Intelligence Agency and confirmation Randall Schriver to assistant secretary of Defence for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs, who are both seen as pro-Taiwan, suggest the US might shift toward a more pro-Taiwan stance. John Bolton replacing H.R. McMaster as National Security Advisor is similarly concerning, as he has recently advocated for reinterpretation of the One China policy, an increase of military sales to Taiwan, and possibly stationing US troops in Taiwan. These top-level changes in the Trump government are much more significant for cross-strait politics than the TTA. 

And what are its effects?

Diplomatically isolated, gaining any form of international recognition is always high priority for Taiwan authorities. On top of this success, Tsai Ing-Weng has demonstrated her influence in the United States specifically. It is a boon for the Taiwan leader, whose approval ratings have struggled over the past year.

But in paying lip-service to the Taipei, Washington has also seriously damaged its relationship with Beijing with little to show for it. This action puts more pressure on cross-strait relations, which have already been high since 2016 regional election in the island. China’s opposition has been clear since this legislation was first introduced into Congress.

But for what purpose? In terms of US government operations, the Taiwan Travel Act is frivolous and unnecessary. That it was developed by a small group of lawmakers and passed by a disinterested, complacent congress; the product is toothless and out-of-touch. It is sloppy foreign policy.

A somewhat similar incident occurred in 2003, when congress shoe-horned a recommendation for “expanding US-Taiwan military ties” into unrelated legislation. In response, Bush signed the bill but while doing so made a public statement that there was no change to America’s One China policy. 

Trump would have done well to do something similar with the Taiwan Travel Act. Instead, he has allowed a pointless affront to Beijing during a critical period for cooperation. 

(Brady Fox is a Canadian expert on Asia Pacific affairs.)