Trump could isolate US in coercing allies to form an alliance against China

Ken Moak CGTN Published: 2018-10-13 17:37:48
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Editor's note: Ken Moak is the co-author of the 2015 book  "China's Economic Rise and Its Global Impact," and he has taught economic theory, public policy and globalization at the university level for 33 years. This article reflects his opinion, and not necessarily the views of China Plus.

US President Donald Trump seems willing to risk allies' national interests in his trade and geopolitical wars against China. The first sign is a provision in the "new NAFTA", now called the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA), requiring a signatory member (read Canada and Mexico) to give the other (read US) advance notice if it (or they) decide to forge a trade agreement with a "non-market economy" (read China). 

Article 32.1 of the USMCA can be interpreted as a vile threat against Canada or Mexico because it allows the US to terminate the agreement in six months.

Another indication is US Vice President Mike Pence's speech at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank, in which he denounced China as the "biggest threat" to US national security and calling on "like-minded" nations to join the fight. Since then US security organizations - Pentagon, FBI, and others - are parroting the same message. 

US Vice President Mike Pence. [Photo: VCG]

US Vice President Mike Pence. [Photo: VCG]

His senior officials are busy traveling around the world, telling countries to be wary of China's "debt trap" diplomacy and "Fu Manchu deviousness". His speech is probably meant to rally allies and the US public in supporting the administration's battle against China.

However, history has shown that forcing countries to choose sides against an enemy over a perceived threat has consequences for all, including the bullying nation. 

For example, the US lost over 5,000 lives and trillions of US dollars and possibly tarnished George W Bush's legacy in history over the Iraq War. 

Tony Blair, the then British prime minister and the staunchest US ally in the Iraq War, was accused of misleading the Parliament and the British people. He was criticized in 2016 Iraq Inquiry for sending over 300 young British soldiers to an early grave in addition to helping the US kill and displace millions of Iraqis. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing the new USMCA trade pact between Canada, the US, and Mexico in Ottawa, Canada, October 1, 2018. [Photo: VCG]

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing the new USMCA trade pact between Canada, the US, and Mexico in Ottawa, Canada, October 1, 2018. [Photo: VCG]

The war incurred tremendous losses of human lives and properties in Iraq, turning the country into a dysfunctional state wrought with sectarian fighting.

Invading Iraq and other countries with "fake news" was costly. Imagine what would happen if the US fought China with false or unsubstantiated accusations. 

China is not Iraq

China is not Iraq and asking allies to fight China together with the US is equal to asking them to commit economic and geopolitical suicide. The most powerful ones - Japan, Australia, the Republic of Korea (ROK) - are dependent on China for their socio-economic well-being. 

What's more, fighting China will be extremely costly in terms of human lives and property losses, given its large number of nuclear-armed missiles capable of hitting the US and its allies.

Perhaps having realized the potential consequences of allying with the US against China, America's close allies - Japan, Australia, and the ROK - are seeking rapprochement rather than confrontation with the Asian giant. 

Japan has sent a large business delegation to China recently to mend ties with its giant neighbor. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is going to begin his three-day official visit to China on October 23 to improve bilateral relations. The new Australian government is also said to be making a similar gesture.

India, too, is seeking rapprochement with China, working closely with its neighbor and fellow Shanghai Cooperation Organization member to promote multilateralism. What's more, it is defying US pressure by buying Russian weapons and Iran oil.

Nations, as the 19th Century British statesman observed, have no permanent allies or enemies, only national interests. Joining the US against China will definitely hurt their national interests. 

For example, ROK decision to host the US THAAD system cost a retail conglomerate to shut down its lucrative Chinese market. One can only imagine what would happen if the ROK decides to go to war with China.

Is China as "evil" as the US portray it?

Whether China is as "evil" as the US government and neoconservatives say it is, depends on who is talking. But none of the US allegations can be proven, the latest one is a security analyst alleged that Chinese spies had planted surveillance chips on Amazon and Apple servers used by the US military. 

A worker monitoring a soybean oil production line at the Hopeful Grain and Oil Group factory in Sanhe, north China's Hebei Province, July 19, 2018. [Photo: VCG]

A worker monitoring a soybean oil production line at the Hopeful Grain and Oil Group factory in Sanhe, north China's Hebei Province, July 19, 2018. [Photo: VCG]

However, both companies denied the analyst's charge. What's more, the US Department of Homeland Security supports the two companies' denials, saying that there is no proof.

With regard to the other speculations such as China meddling in US politics and policies, they are also just that, speculations. Furthermore, for the US to accuse China of interfering in other countries' internal affairs is hypocritical. 

The US has a history of meddling in other countries' political stances, bombing those who would not "toe the line" and bringing "regime change" to Libya, Iraq, and others. 

Many in Hong Kong believe the US State Department-funded National Endowment for Democracy instigated, funded and organized the student-led 2014 "Umbrella Protest".

Alliance against China would not succeed

The US needs an enemy to justify huge defense spending and China fits the bill because it is "communist". With US manufacturing industry "hallowed" out, weapons development and production have become an essential part of the US economy. 

China's State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi shakes hands with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, October 8, 2018. [Photo: VCG]

China's State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi shakes hands with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, October 8, 2018. [Photo: VCG]

Trump is a symptom of US political culture, which is characterized by creating conflicts, arms selling and the establishment and the entrenchment of the military-industrial complex. 

That is, Trump is not the first and will not be the last president to pursue the "America First" policy. But Trump is bolder than his predecessors by being open about it, perhaps with the exception of George W Bush who once threatened allies by saying "you are either with or against us."

However, pressuring "soulmate" countries into an alliance against China would not succeed. Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte is right, asking an ally to fight China is telling it to commit suicide.

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LU Xiankun Professor LU Xiankun is Managing Director of LEDECO Geneva and Associate Partner of IDEAS Centre Geneva. He is Emeritus Professor of China Institute for WTO Studies of the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) and Wuhan University (WHU) of China and visiting professor or senior research fellow of some other universities and think tanks in China and Europe. He also sits in management of some international business associations and companies, including as Senior Vice President of Shenzhen UEB Technology LTD., a leading e-commerce company of China. Previously, Mr. LU was senior official of Chinese Ministry of Commerce and senior diplomat posted in Europe, including in Geneva as Counsellor and Head of Division of the Permanent Mission of China to the WTO and in Brussels as Commercial Secretary of the Permanent Mission of China to the EU. Benjamin Cavender Benjamin Cavender is a Shanghai based consultant with more than 11 years of experience helping companies understand consumer behavior and develop go to market strategies for China. He is a frequent speaker on economic and consumer trends in China and is often featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Channel News Asia. Sara Hsu Sara Hsu is an associate professor from the State University of New York at New Paltz. She is a regular commentator on Chinese economy. Xu Qinduo Xu Qinduo is CRI's former chief correspondent to Washington DC, the United States. He works as the producer, host and commentator for TODAY, a flagship talk show on current affairs. Mr. Xu contributes regularly to English-language newspapers including Shenzhen Daily and Global Times as well as Chinese-language radio and TV services. Lin Shaowen A radio person, Mr. Lin Shaowen is strongly interested in international relations and Chinese politics. As China is quite often misunderstood in the rest of the world, he feels the need to better present the true picture of the country, the policies and meanings. So he talks a lot and is often seen debating. Then friends find a critical Lin Shaowen criticizing and criticized. George N. Tzogopoulos Dr George N. Tzogopoulos is an expert in media and politics/international relations as well as Chinese affairs. He is Senior Research Fellow at the Centre International de Européenne (CIFE) and Visiting Lecturer at the European Institute affiliated with it and is teaching international relations at the Department of Law of the Democritus University of Thrace. George is the author of two books: US Foreign Policy in the European Media: Framing the Rise and Fall of Neoconservatism (IB TAURIS) and The Greek Crisis in the Media: Stereotyping in the International Press (Ashgate) as well as the founder of chinaandgreece.com, an institutional partner of CRI Greek. David Morris David Morris is the Pacific Islands Trade and Investment Commissioner in China, a former Australian diplomat and senior political adviser. Harvey Dzodin After a distinguished career in the US government and American media Dr. Harvey Dzodin is now a Beijing-based freelance columnist for several media outlets. While living in Beijing, he has published over 200 columns with an emphasis on arts, culture and the Belt & Road initiative. He is also a sought-after speaker and advisor in China and abroad. He currently serves as Nonresident Research Fellow of the think tank Center for China and Globalization and Senior Advisor of Tsinghua University National Image Research Center specializing in city branding. Dr. Dzodin was a political appointee of President Jimmy Carter and served as lawyer to a presidential commission. Upon the nomination of the White House and the US State Department he served at the United Nations Office in Vienna, Austria. He was Director and Vice President of the ABC Television in New York for more than two decades.