Who is driving Taiwan down a dangerous road?
Note: The following is an edited translation of a commentary from the Chinese-language "Commentaries on International Affairs."
US Vice President Mike Pence delivered a China-bashing speech in early October, claiming China was "attempting to interfere in our upcoming [midterm] election[s]," "trying [in essence] to change the international order in their favor," and threatening "the stability of the Taiwan Strait."
National flags of China and the United States. [File Photo: VCG]
Recently, the US military has also begun wading into Taiwan-related issues. These moves will inevitably impact China-US relations and cross-Strait ties, and even risk leading to a crisis. By approving of the US stance, Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen turned the island toward a danger zone, much like "a blind man on a blind horse who is in danger of falling into a deep pool at night," as the old Chinese saying depicts.
The US side's "Taiwan card" is meant to pass on internal contradictions and open up a new battlefield between China and the United States. The US government's troubles actually lie in a political anxiety resulting from the current paradox in the mid-term elections. With the fomenting of a series of events, including Russiagate and the guilty plea of Donald Trump's former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, the White House has repeatedly declared that China intervenes in the election in order to bolster the Republican base, shift the focus and shirk responsibilities.
A Reuters report quotes China expert Chris Johnson, a former CIA analyst at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, as saying Pence's speech appeared aimed - in part - at building a narrative that a vote for the Democrats would be a vote for China.
However, the US administration's move is not a small step, but part of a broader "U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy." According to a US media AXIOS report, "The Trump administration is planning to launch a major, 'administration-wide,' broadside against China", including the use of the accusation of "election intervention" to attack China. Foreign Policy, an American publication, is reporting the US military will invest nearly 700 billion US dollars to implement a strategic transformation aimed at China. At present, the US strategy toward China is stuck between "engagement and containment." But it is evolving into a new model involving politics, constraints, containment, economic pressure and military readiness.
It is worth noting that in the past three months, Chinese mainland military planes and warships have suspended patrols around Taiwan. The political climate in the Taiwan Strait is cold, but the risk of it overheating is low. When the US side provoked Sino-US trade frictions and a stalemate between the two sides was in place, Mike Pence made his stand on China. It should be noted the US military is expected to organize large-scale military exercises in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the Pacific Ocean in the near future. It is a clear test of how far the US can push its political bottom line against China. In an attempt to force China to make a "stress response," the Trump administration hopes to increase its negotiating and maneuvering space in other areas.
The United States is not Taiwan's "guardian angel." Tsai Ing-wen's attempt to increase her own weight by pinning her hopes on others is like driving blindly down a dark alley. The US government's pro-Taiwan and anti-Beijing initiative is blatant. Ranging from the "Trump-Tsai phone call" following Trump's election victory, to the signing of the "Taiwan Travel Act" and the National Defense Authorization Act, as well as the recent public announcement that Taiwan is part of the United States' Indo-Pacific strategy, the interaction between the White House and Taipei has been on the rise over the past two years. The United States regards Taiwan as a "strategic chess piece" for containing China, bolstering the Taiwan secession leaning "Green Camp" on the island. The "Double Ten Speech" delivered by Tsai Ing-wen on October 10 has been dubbed the "simplified Pence speech."
Regardless of any US-Taiwan relationship "upgrades," and regardless of how "Green Camp" politicians see the current goodwill between the United States and Taiwan, the White House's "America first" policy will always take priority. In the recently published expose "Fear: Trump in the White House," it details how Trump as a businessman had no special feelings toward Taiwan, and even lacks sufficient interest or understanding of US-Taiwan relations. His biggest concern is what the United States can get by protecting Taiwan.
Less than two years after the Trump administration took office, it approved two arms sales to Taiwan, on top of promoting the "normalization" of US-Taiwan military connections. At the same time, politicians in Washington demanded that Taiwan open its markets fully to US pork and beef, as well as other American agricultural products. In essence, the US is demanding a "protection fee" from Taiwan.
Shelley Rigger, a US expert on cross-Strait relations, has warned the Tsai Ing-wen authorities that Trump, who demands "America first," is not a reliable and formal ally of Taiwan. She says she believes that at a time when the United States accelerates its strategic contraction and foreign policy becomes more selfish, it is one thing to give Taiwan more a sense of satisfaction in words and arms equipment, but it is another to pull the chestnuts of "Taiwan independence" out of the fire and make substantive sacrifice.
Recent challenges to the status quo of the "one China policy" have now been scaled back by the US side, including the notion of stationing US Marines at the American Institute in Taiwan, as well as military exchanges. The US State Department has also reaffirmed the "one-China policy" when it comes to how Taiwan is recognized on the international stage. The United States refused to do anything against international organizations such as the World Health Assembly for excluding Taiwan from participating. And when Mike Pence slammed three Latin American countries for severing ties with Taipei, the US quietly sent back recalled US envoys to these countries, reaffirming its true position when it comes to the "one China policy."
In fact, the Trump administration's Taiwan policy is to use Taiwan for its strategic interests. Political sides in Taiwan remain split on their own attitudes toward US intervention in the Taiwan Strait. By relying too much on US protection, Taiwan is setting itself up as the White House's China policy tool. Once Trump feels that he can reach a "compromise" with the Chinese mainland behind Taiwan's back, Taiwan's interests are likely to be abandoned at any time, which Trump himself has shown an easy willingness to do since taking office. As such, it’s only Taiwan secession which is driving Taiwan down its own dangerous road.
(The original Chinese article was written by Liu Kuangyu, assistant research fellow with the Taiwan Research Institute with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)