China's equidistant policy in the Middle East

By Dr Mohammed Issam Laaroussi

Despite the fact that China is mostly an economic power, China's foreign policy toward the Middle East still adopts a skeptical strategy based on traditional  principles of isolation and  no  military and political interference in the region of tremendous influence. China has been for long decades interested only in strengthening economic partnerships with Middle Eastern  countries. It Is currently facing real challenges to build a political and military commitment towards the region, restored a deep understanding of the geopolitical transformations currently happning in the region.  Relatively, China does not compete with Washington and Moscow politically and militarily to fight terrorism, make an end to the chaos prevailing some areas of tenssion  and to find a strategic footprint in the region. 

Middle East is well-known as a home to various conflicts. Religious conflicts, national conflicts, and economic conflicts mingle together, which has caused several local wars. This region has become a source of terrorism and religious extremism. Due to the lack of a dominant power, the regional powers — Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, even Iraq — struggle with each other over the leadership of Middle East. The conflicts between small and middle powers frequently result in intervention from regional powers and outside ones. Outside powers often support different countries, religions, or religious sects to secure their own benefits.

inian chief negotiator and secretary general of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) executive committee during their meeting in Ramallah on Jan. 31, 2016. [Photo: Xinhua]

In the next decade, the prospect of China’s relations with Middle Eastern states mainly lie in the potential for economic cooperation. For China, it will be difficult to transform cultural exchanges (which have considerable potential) to practical influence in the region. On the one hand, China should cast more significant role in security issues in the Middle East, to show its responsibilities and capabilities as a rising power. On the other hand, China also hopes to get economic and cultural profits from its interactions with the Middle East. 

However, today, estimates of China’s willingness to engage in warfare must take into account the historical perspectives, as well as its actual military capability. China may have the largest standing military in the world, but it has not fought in a war since the 1979 ‘Vietnam lesson’.Although continuing to amass immense technological resources, China’s military capabilities are still nowhere near US levels, and its military remains untested comparable to their counterparts in the US military.” It has developed anti-access capability and defensive anti-ship technology, but these would be useful only in its immediate region. China does not have basing agreements, nor does it yet have the aircraft carrier technology to compete with certain other powers in middle East. 

For China, an equidistant policy is out. It is also inappropriate for China to benefit from inciting conflicts because doing so will harm China’s interests. Similarly, playing off one side against the other, which Russia and the United States prefer, is not a feasible approach, since the oppressed side — either the administration or the opposition — may adopt punitive measures, and then China will suffer economic damages, or even terrorist attacks. China is neither a party to the disputes in the Middle East or responsible for these conflicts; nor is it a direct neighboring country of Middle Eastern states. China’s critical task is still developing its domestic economy and society, thus, it is inappropriate for China to undertake too many international commitments and obligations that might interfere with its domestic progress.

China is implementing the realpolitik approach in the Middle East . Its impact within the region, is seen to be  soft power by looking into trade, capital flows, labor flows, energy and raw materials and competition in the domestic and international markets with respect to goods and services. Indirect effects of China as a global player on the Middle East may also play a role, mainly through the United States the main  player in the Middle East. 

Actually countries in the Middle East, particularly the Arab gulf states, aim to diversify their strategic partners due to the demise of American global power and the diminishing interest of the United States. America’s acrimonious and costly experiences in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya make Washington reluctant to remain directly involved in the region, in addition to the emergence of a tripartite struggle for the hegemony of the region as Iranians, Turks, and Arabs. It was expected that the Chinese government would become a more assertive player in the Middle East in order to counterbalance the American dominance. But China has not so far been able to play this role.

China can have an alternative image in adopting a new perspective and a new policy. China should fight against proliferation issues, enhance its presence in the Middle Eastern countries, invest in Iran’s oil and gas industry, encourage trade and economic relations with the Middle East, promote the rule of law and civil rights in China as well as in the Middle East, adopt a partnership policy and provide more active international support for peaceful solution in Syria, Yemen, Palestine and Libya.

(Dr. Mohammed Issam Laaroussi is a Senior Researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory in United Arab Emirates)