Trump's visit to Asia and impact on China

Dr MOHAMMED Issam Laaroussi  

There is no doubt that Trump`s strategic tour to five Asian nations strives to fulfill his foreign policy agenda in the region. Following the proverb “When the American Presidents want to give a big speech in a public square, they go to Europe. When they want feel-good photos surrounded by adorable children, they go to Africa. And when they want to do business, they go to Asia”. The business motivations might be one of the main drivers behind Trump’s highly publicized trip. However, the security threats and the concerns arise from the general slip in American hegemony cannot be ignored. 

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (L) welcomes visiting U.S. President Donald Trump in Tokyo, capital of Japan, on Nov. 6, 2017. [Photo: Xinhua]

Trump`s rhetoric in Japan has explained the American prodigious defense commitment toward Tokyo, the U.S strategic partner. Following a layover in Pearl Harbor to visit the U.S. Navy's Pacific Command, his first international destination in Japan was arguably justified by a special interest conferred to the threat coming from North Korea as he urges Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to invest for more U.S. missile defense systems. Japan is ranked number seven in the world for defense spending, and it relies heavily on U.S. equipment. Trump`s visit could be beneficial for the U.S economy in terms of new arms trade agreements with the Japanese government.     

The highlight of Trump's trip is sure to be his November 8-9 trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Like Abe, Xi is also riding high on the wings of domestic political triumph, in Xi's case the fruitful conclusions of the once-in-five-years National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The top item on Xi's agenda is likely to be North Korea. More importantly the question to arise is: Will November 2017 mark the moment the United States ceded leadership in the Asia-Pacific Region to China because Trump lacks the experience and conceptual ability to think strategically rather than transnationally?

Trump’s contempt for free trade agreements, bilateral or otherwise, has opened the door to President Xi Jinping to take the high road as a proponent of globalization and an opponent of protectionism. Trump continue to argue that there are plenty of arrows in his economic quiver to bring an intractable China to ground. At the informal summit in Mar-a-Lago earlier this year between Trump and Xi, the two leaders agreed to hold bilateral discussions on trade and economic issues. These discussions have made little progress.

The U.S, boosted by its partners, Japan, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, India and Singapore, is still not confident and able to contain the security threats coming from North Korea. Trump can claim credit for gaining UN Security Council resolutions, for imposing tough new sanctions on North Korea, and for assembling allies and elements of the international community behind UN sanctions. However, he has not given sanctions a chance to take hold. Moreover, China remains the key major power in the Asia-Pacific region recompensing the American declining position. China has inaugurated an era of successful openness, domestically and internationally without any fears about the future of the U.S leadership.

Trump’s visit to Asia offers a unique chance to promote a strategy to guide the American commitment in the region diplomatically, politically, economically, and militarily. The word rebalanced explains the American diplomacy engagement to redress geopolitical priorities in Asia, inspiring regional states to follow American leadership. If Trump continues to depict the United States as a victim of Chinese influence, Trump will have effectively agreed to the leadership of Xi Jinping in the eyes of Southeast Asian states and signaled that the post-war era of U.S. primacy is rapidly drawing to a close. It does little good for the United States to overpass China in military power if there is no leadership and strategy to use all elements of national power to strengthen a rules-based regional and global order.

In sum, Trump`s visit to Asia is considered as a pragmatic endeavor, firstly to bridge the gap with China in terms of economic ties. Secondly, to come up with a proactive security approach that is able to guarantee a security and safety for its partners. Thirdly, Trump is attempting to juggle China`s role as a potential major power, as China`s influence becomes a relevant fact. A rebalancing strategy in Asia was one of American foreign policy`s pillars, based on China and the United States commitment to expanding economic, political, and security cooperation wherever possible. But rebalance for China means merely an American “containment” by another name. Supporting a collaborative diplomatic process is more likely the best driver of Trump`s policy in Asia taking into consideration the current geopolitical fact that China is a major power in the Asia-Pacific region.

(Dr. Mohammed ISSAM LAAROUSSI is a professor of international relations based in United Arab Emirates)