Sino-US cooperation and East Asian security

By Zhiqun Zhu

During President Donald Trump’s recent visit to China, both he and President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of maintaining international security. Indeed this is a common interest between China and the United States. One of the key challenges in East Asian security is North Korea’s nuclear program. 

There are three broad approaches to deal with the North Korea problem: deterrence and sanction-based policy; military action; and returning to negotiations. Unfortunately none of these three will work right now. The U.S. preferred sanction-based policy has obviously failed to curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Instead it has driven North Korea closer to the de facto nuclear state status. 

A soldier (rear) of North Korea stands guard at the truce village of Panmunjom in the demilitarized zone (DMZ) in Paju, South Korea, March 19, 2013. [Photo: Xinhuanet]

Worse, any military action on the Korean Peninsula will have unbearable consequences, especially for the Korean people. With a quick glance at how prosperous South Korea is and some historical knowledge of how South Koreans built the economic miracle after the Korean War, one will understand why the South Koreans strongly oppose war and why South Korean president Moon Jae-in has insisted that no U.S.-led war on the Korean Peninsula will be permitted without South Korea’s consent. Many South Koreans are appalled by President Trump’s threat of “fire and fury” over North Korea.

But conditions are not right for an immediate return to the negotiation table either. Even China who sponsored the Six-Party Talks between 2003 and 2009 realizes that distrust between the United States and North Korea is a gap too far to bridge. The United States has insisted that North Korea must give up its nuclear program before any meaningful talks can be held, but the North Koreans will not abandon it as they think the U.S. threat is clear and present. In their minds, it’s a leverage they cannot afford to cede. 

A blind spot in the current debate about North Korea is a fundamental question that is not often asked: who will guarantee North Korea’s security? If the international community can create conditions under which the North Koreans feel it unnecessary to develop nuclear weapons, then the nuclear problem may automatically disappear. This holds the best hope for a peaceful resolution of the stalemate. Will the United States and China jointly provide security guarantees to North Korea? This is something the two countries can work on if they wish to establish long-term stability in East Asia. 

Denuclearization is an objective, not a pre-condition for peaceful talks. Without security guarantees, it’s wishful thinking to expect North Korea’s voluntary denuclearization. A softer approach towards North Korea has the potential to achieve this ultimate objective. Promoting cultural exchanges and welcoming North Korea into the international community should be an integral part of such an approach. 

Public diplomacy can be an effective way to break diplomatic stalemates. In 2008 the New York Philharmonic Orchestra paid a historic visit to Pyongyang, where it performed to a polite and enthusiastic audience. When the Star Spangled Banner was played, the fascinated North Korean audience reportedly all stood up and showed respect to America. Former NBA player Dennis Rodman traveled to North Korea several times in recent years, but each time the U.S. State Department quickly distanced itself from the famous “bad boy”, brushing away opportunities to generate goodwill between North Koreans and Americans through such people-to-people exchanges. Kenneth Bae, a Korean-American who was released in November 2014 after being sentenced to 15 years of hard labor in North Korea, said he thought Rodman increased public awareness of his imprisonment leading to his early release.

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, at age 93, admirably offered to travel to Pyongyang again to help defuse tensions, but the Trump administration has rejected the proposal. Carter has been to North Korea at least three times in a non-official capacity to help negotiate deals with North Korea and seek returns of American citizens held by North Korea.

A major challenge for China and the United States is how to integrate North Korea into the dynamic East Asian community. China welcomed a North Korean delegation to the Belt and Road Forum in May 2017. North Korea has expressed its intentions to attend the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. China and the United States should welcome North Korea’s participation in international events. Extensive interactions with North Korean people have a better chance to effect positive changes within North Korea. 

“War made the state, and the state made war,” asserted sociologist and political scientist Charles Tilly. By the same token, states make peace, and peace can make a new state out of North Korea. With concerted efforts by all relevant parties especially the United States and China, peace is within reach and sustainable on the Korean Peninsula.

(Zhiqun Zhu, PhD, is Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Bucknell University, USA.