China-U.S misunderstanding: Time for constructive dialogue

By Dr Mohammed Issam Laaroussi

As it was mentioned in several media outlets, US President Donald Trump spoke, for the first time, with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2018, to discuss trade, as well as the talks between Pyongyang and Seoul. Both leaders expressed hope that the negotiations might prompt a change in North Korea’s destructive behavior. Trump also made a case for finding a solution to the unbalanced US-China trade relations.

The talk focused on the North Korea threat and US-China trade relations. This means that probable changes of Trump overview might occur in the coming days. the rhetoric Trump’s strategy employs give the impression of a much more pronounced shift from the previous administration than actually may be the case. It risks pushing Russia and China closer together, which prior Democratic and Republican administrations sought consciously to avoid.

This could end up unnecessarily complicating efforts to cooperate with China, in particular, when it’s in U.S. interests to do so. And it does not address how the United States will pay for what could end up becoming a very costly, long-term rivalry while also rebuilding at home, passing a $1.5 trillion tax cut, and managing long-term fiscal challenges.

Washington determination to defend itself and its allies as well from the growing tension on Korean Peninsula remains one of the key issues of President Trump`s priorities. Recently, He underlined the need for China to use all available handles to convince North Korea to end its provocations and return to the path of denuclearization. The Trump’s strategy chooses not to reaffirm Obama’s commitment for the United States to pursue a world free of nuclear weapons. However, Trump is calling for expanding and modernizing the U.S. nuclear deterrent, and if necessary winning a new nuclear arms race with Russia. 

Trump's reaction toward the latest North Korea`s ballistic missiles over japan, delivered a clear message- the US will not tolerate the irresponsible aggression by North Korea.  This incident revealed a big gap with the Chinese position as well. If Trump opts for a military option, he could find himself not only in a damaging war with North Korea but also, potentially, with neighboring China. On the other hand, if the United States can set aside its unrealistic military options, China may help to persuade North Korea not to exploit its new long-range missiles to act aggressively in the region or escalating a crisis already out of control.

There is no doubt that China has a strong interest in bringing stability to the region therefore, brokering negotiations with North Korea will help reach regional and global goals. North Korea’s provocations are undermining China’s national security by inviting ever-increasing American, Japanese, and South Korean military modernization, exercises, and build-up in China’s immediate neighborhood. 

On the economic front side, Trump faces a huge challenge in persuading Beijing to stop boosting its domestic industries and to do more to open its own huge markets without setting off a trade war that hurts American jobs. China benefited from increasing momentum in the wider global economy last year 2017: the country's overall exports increased 11%, according to government data, and the American demand was a big part of that. Economists expect China's economy to grow about 6.4% this year, down from around 6.8% in 2017. That could mean softening demand for imports as Chinese businesses and consumers tighten their belts and promised to lower the trade deficit with China, threatened to impose duties on Chinese imports as well, asking China to do more to raise its currency.

Generally, Trump`s call with Chinese president Xi Jinping could be a main indicator for opening up a mutual constructive dialogue with China, regardless of Trump rhetoric considered China and Russia as a constant rivalry. Chinese leaders legitimately wonder whether the Trump administration will be responsive to initiatives by Beijing, or if it is instead intent on confronting China and viewing Chinese proposals with suspicion.

President Trump certainly will not uncritically adopt Chinese ideas, but he is transactional in his approach to relationships, which involves a readiness to engage in pragmatic-rational view. It is thus not in Chinese interest to simply expect American initiatives that could frame the subsequent give-and-take discussions on highly disadvantageous terms to China, but instead to offer its own.

In the post-Cold War era, Washington has been advocating an Asia-Pacific security structure with the U.S. as the sole leader and with U.S.-led bilateral alliances as the backbone. This is in essence hegemonic stability. Beijing believes, however, that regional security rests on the cooperation of regional members and a blend of various useful approaches (unilateral, bilateral and multilateral, institutional and non-institutional, track I and track II, etc.), not just on one single country and a set of bilateral security alliances. In this same context, the American and Chinese views are largely different. Furthermore, President Trump needs to adopt multilateralism theoretical framework to align with the Chinese one, also Treating China as a major power in the Asia-Pacific region.    

(Dr. Mohammed ISSAM LAAROUSSI is a professor of international relations based in United Arab Emirates)