Trump plays chicken with China, puts global trading system at risk

By Xu Qinduo

U.S. President Donald Trump's latest threat to impose 100 billion dollars of additional tariffs on imports from China looks more like a tantrum than a meaningful gesture aimed at resolving its dispute with its biggest trading partner. The new threat comes after the 50 billion dollars of punitive tariffs proposed by the United States against China enter a two-month period of public review. The clock is now ticking.

President Donald Trump speaks during a roundtable discussion on tax policy Thursday, April 5, 2018, in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. [Photo: IC]

President Trump campaigned on promises that he would be a tough guy when it came to dealing with China. "I beat the people from China. I win against China. You can win against China if you're smart," he said back in 2015.

After years of tough talk, it's clear he thinks the time for action is now. At the same time, U.S. officials have said they are talking with China to work through the issues, and reassured the American people that they have the situation under control.

But the truth is far from the picture they are painting.

If you have been listening to those U.S. officials, you'd get the impression that Washington wants to avoid a trade war, and that it's negotiating with Beijing. But there are no behind-the-scenes negotiations between the world's two biggest economies.

A Chinese source says the meeting between China's ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai and Acting Secretary of State John J. Sullivan on Thursday was agreed before the trade spat began, and was not arranged to be a forum for defusing the trade tensions.

Larry Kudlow, Trump's top economic advisor, told Fox Business on Wednesday that "There's no trade war here… What you've got is the early stages of a process, which will include tariffs, comments on the tariffs, then ultimate decisions and negotiations. There are already back-channel talks going on." There are already back-channel talks going on? The Americans must be talking to themselves, because they aren't talking to China.

Attempting to play down market fears, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said publicly the escalating tension was "not World War III" and "even shooting wars end with negotiations." American farmers have been assured by their government that the trade conflict won't impact their businesses, which is just plain wrong. Soybeans, pork, cars, airplanes – these are but a handful of America's exports that will be affected if this cold trade war warms up.

Any pretense that everything would be fine was swept away by President Trump when he instructed the U.S. Trade Representative to find another 100 billion dollars' worth of imports from China on which he could impose tariffs.

Within hours of Trump's tantrum, China's Ministry of Commerce restated what has been China's position all along, namely, that it will defend its interests "at any cost" and take "comprehensive countermeasures" if the United States continues along the path of unilateral and protectionist practices.

More than that, China's government is not only defending its national interests: it's also fighting to defend the fundamental principles that underpin the global multilateral trading system. These principles are under threat as a result of President Trump's wayward unilateralism. European countries and other big traders would be better served by giving up their short-term gains in the form of temporary exemptions from raised U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, and join China in its efforts to safeguard the integrity of the World Trade Organization.

Given the current state of play, it looks as if a resolution to this conflict is a long way off. In the meantime, China looks to be fully prepared for the approaching confrontation. It is unswerving in its defense of its own interests and the defense of the trade rules and norms on which we all rely for the continuing growth of global prosperity.

As Ambassador Cui said, "If people want to play tough, we will play tough with them, and see who will last longer."

(Xu Qinduo is a current affairs commentator for CRI and CGTN. He has worked as CRI's chief correspondent to Washington DC. Mr. Xu contributes regularly to English-language newspapers including Global Times as well as Chinese-language radio and TV services.)