Kim watches Trump killing the Iran deal

By Zhao Ying

Trump's walking away from the Iran nuclear deal could make it harder for Washington to strike a deal with Pyongyang, as he is sending a chilly message to Kim Jong Un that any US commitment or security guarantee could be easily reversed.

People watch a TV screen showing file footage of U.S. President Donald Trump, left, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, May 16, 2018. [File photo: AP]

Ever since Donald Trump took office, the US has abandoned several international accords with his "America First" policy, from the Paris climate accord to the TPP trade pact and now the Iran deal. The Trump administration is constantly reminding the rest of the world that the US may easily change its mind.

This is something that Kim's late father must have warned him of. On October 18, 1994, the Clinton administration and North Korea signed the Agreed Framework.

Under the agreement, Pyongyang was supposed to halt the construction of its reactors that could be used to produce nuclear weapons; in exchange, the US would build for North Korea two light-water nuclear reactors that could produce energy but not bomb fuel, as well as 500,000 tons of fuel oil annually.

After the agreement was signed, North Korea suspended nuclear activities and allowed inspectors back in. However, the US often delayed oil shipments, and the light-water reactors were never built.

In 2002, the Bush administration labeled North Korea as part of an "Axis of Evil," killing what little was left of the spirit of the Agreed Framework.

During his recent meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un said that North Korea had no need to possess nuclear weapons "as long as relevant parties eliminate the hostile policy and security threats" against Pyongyang, a clear reference to the US.

The greatest obstacle to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is North Korea's sense of insecurity. The trust deficit between Pyongyang and Washington is big, and Kim could have drawn lessons from Iraq and Libya that the US will only launch attacks on countries with no weapons of mass destruction at all, although alleged possession of such weapons can be an excuse for US military action.

In 2003, the US invaded Iraq and overthrew the regime of Saddam Hussein in the pretext of his ties to al Qaeda and continuing pursuits of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. But actual evidence for those accusations has never been found.

Former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi voluntarily gave up his nuclear program in 2003 and allowed international inspectors to verify and oversee the process. However, by doing so, he seemed to have assisted his own downfall, when the Arab Spring swept into his country in 2011. The US and some NATO countries backed the uprising and bombed Libyan forces, hastening the collapse of Gaddafi's regime.

Will history repeat itself? How is Donald Trump going to make Kim Jong Un feel secure enough to give up North Korea's nuclear program in their upcoming summit? And even if a deal could be struck, can Kim rest assured that the US would keep its words in the future? Will the next US president pursue a different policy and observe the deal his predecessor inked?

Trump's withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal puts America's global credibility in question again. It is another threat to global governance and multilateral diplomacy and will probably make it more difficult for Pyongyang and Washington to build their confidence and trust. There is still hope for denuclearization, as Pyongyang publicly pledged and promised to dismantle its nuclear facility, but the Iran case has no doubt made the already serious trust-deficit between Pyongyang and Washington even worse.

(Zhao Ying is a CRI English host and reporter)