The SCO looks to find its next steps after its expansion

By Brady Fox 

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will convene in Qingdao in Shandong Province on June 9 and 10, the first such meeting since the organization expanded last year to include India and Pakistan. The summit will produce the “Qingdao Declaration” alongside agreements on security, economics, and development. And a three-year action plan will be announced for fighting terrorism, separatism, and extremism. 

People's Liberation army soldiers participate in the opening ceremony of joint exercise code-named "Peace Mission 2014" involving member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Zhurihe, north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Aug. 24, 2014. The 18th Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit is scheduled for June 9 to 10 in Qingdao, a coastal city in east China's Shandong Province. [Photo: Xinhua]

A defining feature of the SCO is the natural geopolitical rivalry between its member states. As such, parallels may be made with early iterations of the European Union, where an economic pact is forged between members with longstanding territorial disputes and competing interests. By building economic integration and security cooperation, the participating states lower the risk of conflict between them. It is a deliberate choice of mutual benefits over potential conflicts. 

Indeed, at its inception, the principle benefit of the SCO was to reduce the risk of conflict between Russia and China in Central Asia. It also provided an avenue for smaller Central Asian states to negotiate with both giants on more equal terms, and to avoid the more deleterious effects of being sandwiched between large international rivals. Since then, the SCO has been central to building a positive relationship between China and Russia despite their competing interests and different approaches to international diplomacy. The difference has been visible within the organization over the last 17 years. China has eagerly pursued cooperation and expansion, and Russia taken a slightly more muted approach. But despite their differences, the SCO has been a success. 

The SCO’s first great expansion came with the addition of Pakistan and India last year. As these two countries build their relations with China and Russia, the SCO provides a forum for communication about their disputes. The stakes are higher, certainly, than they were in the border disputes between Russia and China that the SCO helped resolve in 2004. But as a cooperative aiming to improve internal security, the SCO provides an opportunity for Pakistan and India to move forward. Now that the honeymoon is over, a focus on results will be expected. 

Beijing no doubt hopes that the SCO will allow it to build a better relationship with New Delhi. It is increasingly apparent that a strong partnership with India is the real prize for Chinese foreign policy; strong cooperation between the two countries holds the potential for a continent-wide drive toward prosperity as well as unifying the economic heartbeat of the world’s future. As the two largest markets on the planet, together they have the leverage to make a transformative impact on the global order. But the relationship between the two has always been testy, as seen in the recent border disputes flare-ups and India’s reluctance so far to buy into the Belt and Road Initiative. Trust needs to be built in order to move past points of zero-sum competition, like China has with Russia in recent years. The SCO provides them with the forum to do it. 

Many observers will be watching what happens with a crucial Observer member of the SCO: Iran. Iran is commonly considered to be in line for full membership of the SCO once the international mood is right. In previous years, this was considered to hinge upon the success of its nuclear agreement with the United States, the European Union, and other key international players. With the rest of the diplomatic community scrambling to respond to the unilateral abandonment of the Iranian nuclear deal by the United States, Beijing may see this moment as an opportunity to signal to Iran that it shouldn’t falter on its path. President Xi will meet Iran’s President Hassan Rohani on the sidelines of the summit – that has been confirmed – but the potential is also there for a more public show of support. 

And so the SCO convenes this year with an optimistic but sober tone. The sense of accomplishment that came with its expansion has given way to recognition of its increased responsibility. But it will be a collegial event. China will be a good host. And this post-expansion SCO is still focused on building trust between participants, so we should expect modest, short-term goals that they are able to deliver on. The three-year action plan on terrorism, separatism, and extremism fits this mold well and will likely take center stage alongside the usual calls for mutual cooperation.

(Brady Fox is a Canadian expert on Asia affairs)