Trump's trade war: Is China a threat to the US?

By Fatima-Zohra Er-Rafia

The trade war between China and the US entered a new phase on July 6 when the US imposed new tariffs on 34 billion US dollars of China's goods. Last January, he began his trade war slowly against China by introducing tariffs on solar panels and washing machines.

A man walks by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on July 12, 2018 in New York City. [File Photo: VCG]

Since then, the tariff conflict with China has grown by leaps and bounds, impacting American allies as well. Shocked and outraged, the latter have retaliated, which is not boding well for future international relations.

International relations: Maintaining good relations or not? 

The US is the country with the highest numbers of complaints against it at the WTO. Is this why Trump wants to play havoc in the organization (as he is doing with NATO and the UN to some extent)? Will anyone really be surprised if Trump decides to leave the WTO in a huff?

That said, historically, the US has had symbiotic relations with its Canadian neighbor, complementary relations with Europe, commensal relations with Japan and South Korea (among others), and confrontational relations with the Soviet "enemy" and the communist bloc during the Cold War.

Today, all these relationships are breaking down because of the Trump effect. The US president sees his allies as enemies, not as economic competitors. The attack on China is a continuum to this behavior.

The US knows very well that China is a communist country that has only (relatively) recently opened up to capitalism. Expecting China to become just as liberal capitalist as the West in only three to four decades is preposterous.

Is this current state of America's international relations due to Trump's incompetence as president and/or his mentality as a businessman?

A leopard can't change its spots 

Trump is primarily a businessman. He has never managed to put himself in the shoes of the president of the world's largest economic and military power.

Instead, he has clung to his reactions as a businessman who is facing competition. He remains a prisoner of his mercantilist mentality where everything is seen in terms of deals and financial gains.

He does not grasp the fact that there is more than just the economy in the world. He forgets that politics is intertwined with security, peace and human values. Disregarding his civilizational responsibility, Trump is one-dimensional; dollars are what matters to him at the end of the day.

Trump's outlook clashes with globalization and post-modern society, as well as with the principles of economic liberalism and of international organizations. 

Trump: China is the enemy to overcome   

Trump keeps hammering that he wants to "Make America Great Again" at a time when China is the number two world economic power, and which, according to economic forecasts made by Bloomberg, will dethrone the US in 2028-29.

The US had not anticipated that China would become the world's factory so quickly and thus will become a serious threat to its hegemony.

Also, China with its Belt and Road Initiative continues to gain ground on all fronts, attracting countries around the world through its investments and ability to deal with underdeveloped nations to help them achieve projects that will benefit all parties, something the US is not able to do.

The immediate consequence is that the US is isolated while China is not. This situation does not suit Trump, the competitive businessman, in any way. So, what would be better than imposing tariffs on Chinese imported goods?

The world to Trump: 'One for all and all for one'… Except for one!

By arguing against the principles of economic liberalism and of international organizations, Trump is signing his political death warrant in world history, as China, the EU and the rest of the world will close ranks and continue without the US of Trump. His presidency is and will be an exceptional case in that it has allowed other countries to become more cooperative with each other.

China will measure its (re)actions and will be open to dialogue. It will continue its development thanks to the Belt and Road Initiative.

Any reaction to Trump's attacks will be well-thought-out and respectful of China's dignity and sovereignty to prevent an uncontrollable trade war spiral.

In these circumstances, the US will be seen as unreasonable and unreliable by not respecting international agreements, an image that continues to be confirmed day after day.

Let's not forget that in politics, the one who attacks first is usually the one who loses the war. By escalating the trade war, Trump is slowly cutting off the hand that feeds the US, and that holds a large chunk of its debt.

Editor's note: Dr Fatima-Zohra Er-Rafia is a lecturer at HEC Montreal and Polytechnique Montreal, a consultant, and an independent researcher. The article reflects the author’s opinions, and not necessarily the views of ChinaPlus.