Merkel's decision to not seek reelection a major test to Europe

Note: The following is an edited translation of a commentary from the Chinese-language "Commentaries on International Affairs."   

Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel recently announced that she would not seek reelection as the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at the party's conference in December. She also announced that she will not seek reelection as Chancellor in 2021, which will bring an end to her career in office. This news has shocked the world. The German media has described Chancellor Merkel's decision the end of an era.

German Christian Democratic Party, CDU, chairwoman and Chancellor Angela Merkel addresses the media during a news conference after a party's leaders meeting at the headquarters the in Berlin, Germany, Monday, Oct. 29, 2018. [Photo: AP/Markus Schreiber]

Merkel, known as Germany's "Iron Lady", has been chairman of the CDU for 18 years, and Chancellor for 13 years. She has led Germany steadily and decisively, and she has guided Europe through a difficult stage in its integration. She has dealt with many severe crises and had some extraordinary achievements. Hailed as an outstanding stateswoman not only in Europe but also around the world, her personal style has won her wide acclaim. Le Monde said that Chancellor Merkel's modesty, truth-seeking, and respectful human style is rare among today's world leaders. As she prepares to bid farewell to her political career, she said "I was not born a chancellor and I have never forgotten that." Her announcement that "It is time to start a new chapter" and her gradual retreat from public office demonstrated her approach of thoughtful consideration.

Chancellor Merkel's reputation has been built through hard work and the heavy burdens that she has carried throughout her leadership. In recent years, crises in Germany and Europe overlapped amid a changing political climate, and traditional European politics of the school represented by Chancellor Merkel did not have much in reserve to respond effectively. In the elections for the Bundestag last year, the two traditional major parties suffered a setback, and the populist opposition Alternative for Germany entered parliament for the first time, marking a turning point in the balance of the prevailing political forces. 

At the same time, the country's ruling coalition lost its absolute majority as well as the right to form a cabinet, and negotiations with the other parties to form a new coalition also failed. In the end, the Social Democratic Party formed a joint cabinet with the center-right Christian democratic parties, namely the CDU and the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU). This broke the embarrassing impasse, but it also shook Chancellor Merkel's political roots in a way that continued to reverberate the following year. At the end of last month, the ruling party lost again in the local elections, which became the straw that broke the camel's back. With the confidence that's needed to govern effectively gone, the chancellor of Germany and de facto leader of the European Union decided to gradually withdraw from politics. This move is the product of the serious deterioration in the political climate in Europe.

Two overarching factors have contributed to this deterioration. First of all, conflicts between the United States and the European Union have intensified. This has led to the development of a murky policy environment. United States President Donald Trump's "America First" policy has had a disrupting influence on European governance, and it poses a serious threat to Europe's economy, politics, and security. The United States has launched a trade war against Europe as if it were an enemy, taking aim at Germany and even at Chancellor Merkel directly. And the recent threat by President Trump to tear up the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty is expected to lead to a repeat of the Cold War nightmare when Europe was poised to become the battleground in a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia. The American president wants its European allies to vigorously strengthen their readiness against Russia, but in doing so they risk worsening the security situation in Europe. This is a situation that a great many people in Europe would like to avoid. 

The second factor that has contributed to the declining political environment in Europe is the rise of extremist and populist voices, which have gained strength in the face of Europe's struggle to deal with the problems of the influx of refugees, the need to reform the Euro zone, and the looming Brexit. These voices have gained the upper hand in national politics in Italy, and in parts of Central and Eastern Europe such as Hungary and Poland. The situation has not been helped by the disparaging voices coming from the United States that have bad-mouthed the institution of the European Union itself. Some American politicians have gone so far as to openly offer encouragement to nationalist right-wing forces in Europe, and in doing so are encouraging the destruction of European unity. The result has been that Germany's position as a leader of Europe has become increasingly tenuous. Poland and Greece have even retained the right to demand compensation from Germany for their losses during the Second World War.

At the same time, public sentiment against globalization has been on the rise in Germany. The opponents of globalization, bored with traditional politics, are more concerned with defending their own interests and are increasingly dissatisfied with what they see as an overly generous approach to refugees, social welfare, and environmental protection. This has contributed to the growing tendency for Germany's political parties to focus more and more on their own competitiveness, which has in turn further aggravated the sense of social differences. There is discord among the ruling coalition, especially between the CDU and the CSU, and within the CDU itself. 

It is against this background that Chancellor Merkel decided to announce that she would begin the process of retirement. Although several competitors are eager to become her successors, their prestige and ability to exert control are no match for Merkel. The uncertainty that will follow her retirement will be unprecedented in recent times, and it is an uncertainty that will be felt across all of Europe, judged from the public sentiment about the news of her impending departure. 

The European Union is facing difficulties with integration. It is reeling from the swing by the United States towards unilateralism. And a decade on, the impacts of the European debt crisis are still being felt. How Europe responds to these tests of its resolve and its values will influence the international environment for years to come. 

(The article was originally written by Xing Hua, a research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies)