Where is the road leading for Brexit?
Note: The following is an edited translation of an article from the Chinese-language "Commentaries on International Affairs."
Pounds on world map. [Photo: VCG]
On Tuesday the British House of Commons voted on the agreement reached between Prime Minister Theresa May and the European Union. It was solidly rejected: 432 votes against, and just 202 in support.
This result was not unexpected. Before the vote, commentators in Britain and elsewhere were generally in agreement that the government would likely lose this vote. But the extent of the defeat was beyond the expectations of many. The last time a sitting government was so roundly defeated in the House was back in 1924, with the defeat of a motion by the Labor minority government led by Ramsay MacDonald, which it lost by 166 votes.
It’s clear that the "soft Brexit" strategy Prime Minister May has been pursuing has failed. Throughout the negotiations, she has tried to maintain close ties with the European Union. As part of the firmly pro-EU faction, she believes that a clean break with Europe is not in the fundamental interests of the United Kingdom. And so, in her decisions, she has tried to maximize the degree to which the United Kingdom remains in the European Union. The Prime Minister believes this strategy can nominally satisfy the demands of the pro-Brexit faction while at the same time allowing the United Kingdom to become a de facto member of the European Union without formal membership, and in doing so gain the support of the pro-EU camp. Obviously, Prime Minister May’s strategy has satisfied almost no one. Many from both the pro-Brexit and pro-EU groups oppose the deal on offer. And its rejection by parliament has plunged the United Kingdom into an unprecedented political crisis.
Prime Minister May’s own political future is not optimistic. Within the Conservative Party, she faces tremendous pressure to resign and take responsibility for the failure of the vote. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labor Party, has called for a vote of no confidence against the government. Parliament is scheduled to debate and vote on the motion on Wednesday. In the event that it passes, a new government would need to be formed that garners the support of more than half the lower house within 14 days, or else a general election will be called.
But booting out the Prime Minister would just be a salve bringing temporary relief from the burning need to find an agreeable Brexit deal. As it stands, it’s seemingly impossible for a political consensus to be reached among the factions in the government, let alone across party lines and among the general public. On the key issue of where the United Kingdom should go from here, there’s plenty of anger but no rational road map. As Prime Minister May said after the vote: "It is clear that the House does not support this deal, but tonight's vote tells us nothing about what it does support."
The ultimate problem the political elite in the United Kingdom face is that they only know what they don't want – they don't know what they actually want, nor do they know how to get it. Parliament doesn’t support the existing Brexit deal, but it also doesn’t want a no-deal Brexit. A second referendum has been proposed as one way out of this quagmire, but this would shake the people’s confidence in the country’s political system, as a change in the outcome would be a veto of the first referendum. This could be seen as violating the will of the 17.4 million voters who supported Brexit the first time around.
European Council President Donald Tusk said "If a deal is impossible, and no one wants no deal, then who will finally have the courage to say what the only positive solution is?" What Tusk is calling "the only positive solution" is actually the hope that the United Kingdom will remain in the European Union. That possibility exists, but it would require a vast amount of courage on the part of the government to withdraw the Brexit application. At the same time, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit is rising. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced that the European Union will intensify its preparations for this scenario. "The risk of a disorderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom has increased with this evening's vote," Juncker said in a statement following the events of Tuesday evening.
In the eyes of many international observers, Brexit is a huge mistake that’s damaging to Europe, brings uncertainty to the economic prospects of the United Kingdom, and weakens London’s status as a global financial center. If the worst of the possible outcomes is to be avoided, the political representatives of the United Kingdom need to find a responsible way forward.
(The original article was written by Zhao Ke, an associate professor with the Institute for International Strategic Studies, Central Party School.)